Oregon’s biggest counties depend on international migration for population growth

Oregon’s population has

grown very modestly over the past few years

, a sharp contrast to the robust expansion during the 2010s.

But even that modest growth has relied upon people moving to Oregon from other countries, according to newly released census data.

International migration netted Oregon nearly 24,000 additional residents last year. Meanwhile, 1,200 more people moved away from Oregon to other parts of the U.S. than moved to the state from elsewhere in the country.

With the Trump administration working to stem the flow of people moving into the U.S. — both legally and illegally — Oregon may not be able to continue looking abroad to maintain or grow its population.

Most Oregon counties had more migrants from other countries than from other parts of the U.S. between 2023 and 2024, according to census data

first noted

by Portland pollster John Horvick.

That includes Multnomah and Washington counties, the state’s two largest.

Domestic migration from those two counties was negative last year. Multnomah County had 4,700 more people move to other places in the U.S. than moved in. In Washington County, the net loss to domestic migration was nearly 3,100 people.

Overall, though, both counties had positive migration. That’s because Multnomah County had a net gain of 5,700 residents from other countries, while Washington County gained 7,600 from international migration.

The story is similar in many other counties. Clackamas County gained a small number of domestic migrants but added many more residents — 1,400 — from other countries.

Several smaller counties did have more domestic than international migrants. Fast-growing Deschutes County had a gain of nearly 2,100 domestic migrants and net international migration of around 600.

Oregonians have long been ambivalent about population growth, dating to former Gov. Tom McCall’s famous welcome to tourists visiting the state: “For heaven’s sake,” he said, “don’t move here to live.”

And yet migration is important for Oregon because

its residents are among the oldest

, on average, of any state in the nation. And Oregon

also has one of the country’s lowest birthrates

. Deaths have outnumbered births in Oregon

since 2020

.

That means Oregon’s population will fall in the years to come unless birth rates pick up or the state attracts more migrants — from other parts of the country or other parts of the world.

The economic consequences of a shrinking population could be significant, with fewer workers for Oregon businesses and fewer taxpayers to pay for public services.

Coming next week:

Oregon Insight compares births and deaths in each Oregon county. Some had more than twice as many deaths as births last year. One county had three times more deaths.

—

Mike Rogoway

covers Oregon technology and the state economy. Reach him at

mrogoway@oregonian.com

or 503-294-7699.

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