Wildfires Don’t Stop Growth: Rural Counties See Population Increase Amid High Fire Risk

Natural disasters like wildfires prompt immediate panic and evacuation. For many, the rush to safety brings with it the chaos of gathering family members, essential documents, and irreplaceable memories. But what happens after the smoke clears? As the initial shock of a wildfire subsides, the long-term effects on the affected communities can be surprising.

While some people undoubtedly choose to leave, the story of those who remain is often less clear. In fact, many rural communities facing an increased risk of wildfires are experiencing a boom in new residents. Take Douglas County, Oregon, for example. In 2017, the Umpqua North Complex fires devastated 43,158 acres in this rural part of the Pacific Northwest. Thousands were displaced, with some leaving the area for good. Between 2020 and 2023, 1,100 people moved out of the county. However, a surprising 4,200 people moved in, resulting in a net population gain of 5,400.

This phenomenon isn’t isolated to Oregon, or even the Pacific Northwest. According to data from the Wildfire Risk to Communities project—a joint effort by Headwaters Economics and the Fire Modeling Institute—rural counties across the United States, including those at high wildfire risk, have been seeing substantial population increases.

A Growing Trend: People Moving to High-Risk Areas

Between 2020 and 2023, rural counties with a high risk of wildfires saw a 2.5% increase in net migration, which translated to a gain of approximately 540,000 residents. This is significantly higher than the 1% net migration gain seen in rural counties without high wildfire risk. Remarkably, nearly two-thirds of rural counties with high wildfire risk experienced positive net migration during this period, compared to just 60% of rural counties overall.

But this trend isn’t limited to rural areas in the Pacific Northwest or other regions prone to wildfires. The Southeastern United States has also seen a rise in the number of people moving to high-risk areas. Coastal regions of South Carolina, for instance, are popular vacation spots despite the fire risk in areas like coastal Georgetown, where fire plays a crucial role in the ecosystem, particularly for trees such as the longleaf pine.

While these southeastern counties generally score lower on the wildfire risk index compared to their counterparts in the West, they are still at higher risk than other rural regions in the U.S. On average, rural counties in the South score in the 60th percentile on the wildfire risk index, compared to 77th percentile for the Coastal West.

Wildfire Risk and Population Growth: A Complex Relationship

Counties that fall within the top 10% of the highest wildfire risk scores, those with risk levels higher than the 90th percentile, have experienced a net migration increase of 82,700 people between 2020 and 2023. In the Western U.S., particularly in the states of Idaho, Wyoming, and Montana, these high-risk rural counties saw a migration increase that amounted to roughly 10% of their 2020 population—around 24,000 new residents.

The Wildfire Risk to Communities data shows a clear correlation between higher wildfire risk and higher net migration in rural areas, but it’s important to note that wildfire risk alone doesn’t fully explain these shifts in population. While these areas are undeniably scenic and boast outdoor amenities like national parks, mountains, and vast forests, it’s likely that the allure of living in such breathtaking environments outweighs the perceived danger of wildfires.

The increase in migration to high-risk rural counties doesn’t mean that people are moving specifically because of wildfires. Rather, it seems that the stunning natural beauty of these areas, their low cost of living, and a desire to escape urban sprawl are driving the migration patterns.

Migration to Scenic, Risky Areas

For many people, living near national parks, forests, or coastal regions offers a lifestyle that appeals to their desire for peace, solitude, and access to nature. Areas around iconic locations like Zion National Park in Utah have seen significant population increases, and this trend isn’t restricted to Western states. In fact, many rural regions across the U.S., even those vulnerable to wildfires, are gaining population faster than other rural areas.

While it’s true that people may not be consciously moving to areas with high wildfire risk, they are undeniably willing to accept the risks in exchange for the opportunity to live in some of the country’s most picturesque landscapes. This growing trend is reflected in both migration data and the real estate market, where rural properties in wildfire-prone areas are in high demand.

The Appeal of Rural Living Despite Risks

This paradox of people choosing to move into higher-risk wildfire areas speaks to a broader cultural and social shift. The COVID-19 pandemic played a pivotal role in accelerating the trend of people moving away from cities and urban centers to more rural, isolated locations. The remote work boom allowed individuals to reconsider their living arrangements and opt for a quieter, more nature-connected lifestyle.

However, the risks associated with wildfires are not insignificant, and some areas are grappling with the consequences of such rapid population growth. As these regions continue to attract newcomers, they will need to find ways to balance growth with effective wildfire management, preparedness, and safety measures.

While the relationship between wildfire risk and population migration may seem counterintuitive, it’s clear that people are increasingly drawn to the rural, scenic landscapes of America’s high-risk wildfire zones. The breathtaking views, slower pace of life, and access to outdoor activities seem to outweigh the looming danger of fire for many new residents. But as the number of people moving into these areas increases, so too does the need for responsible fire prevention and management strategies to protect both new residents and the communities already there.

Conclusion

As wildfire risk increases across rural America, people continue to migrate toward these high-risk areas. The growth of rural counties at the highest wildfire risk is driven by the allure of scenic landscapes, outdoor amenities, and a desire for a slower pace of life. While wildfire risk certainly influences migration patterns, it’s just one factor in a complex equation that includes factors like lifestyle choices, the availability of affordable housing, and the desire for natural beauty. These trends are likely to continue, which means that rural communities in high-risk wildfire zones must be prepared for the challenges that come with growth and the increasing threat of natural disasters.

Disclaimer – Our editorial team has thoroughly fact-checked this article to ensure its accuracy and eliminate any potential misinformation. We are dedicated to upholding the highest standards of integrity in our content.

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